Estimate Your Delivery Date

I think the full production number of 10k per year would be per factory location. There were mentions of possible factory locations, a second in the US, Europe and I would think somewhere around China eventually, or China will copy it. Only time will tell.

My wife took delivery of one of the first 10 MINI Coopers arriving in the Annapolis area in 2002. Whenever we were out and about, we'd get swarmed with people coming out of nowhere, gawking and asking a ton of questions. The dealer should have given her a commission for each sale they got from her directing them to the dealership. That went on for at least 4 or 5 months.

I figure it will be worse for the Aptera because it's so strikingly different from any other vehicle on the road today.

If the latest comment from Nathan Armstrong is anywhere near reality, saying that the four wheeled vehicle is only one year behind this vehicle, resources may be diverted to that effort and production may suffer.

Add a second shift or even just weekend over-time and timelines change dramatically.

another variable is the possibility of unaccounted success with production, and more funding is given, as well as profits in orders, in turn driving production itself up exponentially, hastening the wait for ones preorder, as fabrication of the product becomes two or three-fold.

but that is just an outlying factor, and a theory. :)

I saw the recording of that meeting with Nathan yesterday . He said that they would build less than 10 cars in January, less than 25 in February, less that 100 in March, and would be in full production in June. Given Aptera estimates of producing 10,000 cars/year, my shaky math figures that's around 833 cars/month.

- So here's a W.A.G. on production rollout to consider:

• Jan - 5

• Feb - 25

• Mar - 50

• Apr - 100

• May - 200

• June - 450

• July and thereafter: 833

My reservation # is 20614, so my estimate with no cancellations is 2nd Quarter, 2023. I'll be well north of 75 by then. I hope all of us and Aptera enjoy at least half a decade past that! If 50% of orders are cancelled I might have to get a bigger Christmas tree!

My reservation is 18654.

I would agree with seacliff at around 50% of reservations will be converted to orders.

I am, however, not so optimistic that they'll hit full production as soon as they think and therefore I estimate that I'll see my car around last quarter of 2023.

I was in a zoom meeting with CTO Nathan A. as part of the Denver Electric Vehicle Council Aptera event on 6 May 2021. Thanks much sir for the time to answer club member questions and for sharing your knowledge and enthusiasm about Aptera. We are impressed with the thought that has gone into building this amazing vehicle!

In the most recent interview with their CTO, Nathan, he said first consumer deliveries in January of next year (so much for Christmas) and ramping up to full production rate by June. That suggests to me that my 6500ish reservation number may yet come up somewhere close to my birthday next year. Not counting on it but it is a plausibility I can look forward to.

One other variable which will move folks up - some number of reservations are from outside of the US - those won't be filled for quite some time.

What is the current highest reservation number ?

My estimate:

1. Reservation number 19322

2. 50% (based on wild guessing)

3. 1,000 (again, wild guess)

4. Date: Thanksgiving 2022