Opinions Please

I personally invest in two broadly divergent methods myself:

1. Generic, across-the-board passive, index and 'robo-fund' type stuff. I put about 96% of my non-retirement investments into various forms of these. Although I have considered going to actively managed funds by professionals because they've way outperformed my robo-fund.

2. I allow myself about 4% to play on speculative stocks. I pick companies like I picked Tesla when it was $18/share: bet on the owners, the people, or the company culture. Don't bet on technology. My current plays are: $1400 ARVL, $1000 in Aptera, $500 in NIO.

Personally, my gut feels says that at least one of these, if not two of them will be almost Tesla like in valuation growth (market cap).

My reasons for these picks:

ARVL: company founder was successful tech giant w/similar background to Elon Musk. He's not as charismatic, but he is driven. Solid B2B niche industry picked. Great job of slicing a golden opportunity out of un-solidified market chaff. What I mean by this: we are living in an age when the old ways (ICE engines) are going to slowly fade (but never go away entirely). Electric is ascendant. Local delivery vans are PERFECT mating of battery and mode. They're large enough for big batteries, used by fleet managers who manage down to the tenth of a penny; so they'll extract maximum value. Could also add solar to entire outside for meaningful range and longevity gains. Much room to grow.

Aptera: Company founders are: honest, ethical, driven, focused, and VERY nerdy. Every time I hear Chris talk I want to invest more. He's real. They mean business. They got burnt before, but now they have a crystal clear vision to proceed with a laser focus, and pop up like a submarine on unsuspecting victims (Tesla better watch their butts!) That kind of focus, intent and drive with broadly shared values means they have an amazing culture. Just look at the way Sarah posts. It's evident she gets up and goes to work with joy in her heart every day. You can't BUY that kind of good culture. It's built. It's real. It's enough for me to invest because I know that the technical vision is enough to slice off a meaningful niche. You'll never get the mainstreamers with a 3 wheeler, but there are enough of us weirdos that will be massive fanboi's for Aptera; they can succeed for decades to come even if they never expand past our little slice (i.e. never do a 4 wheeler). If anything, I can see them pioneering better 2 wheeled electic vehicles (current ones try too hard to exact-copy motorcycles, which has limited appeal, IMO.) I think they could make some killer 2 wheeled commuters.

NIO: the giant in electric cars you've never heard of, right? Well they're focused, have large scale, and are more of a traditional automotive OEM, but they have great supply chain logistics. This one is a little fuzzy for me: I didn't buy them based on my premise of investing in the people or owners. That's why I didn't put much into it. It's a gamble.

The chances that they will fail are high... like all start-ups in this sector. Putting your money into Aptera at this stage is not an investment, it is a gamble. You are buying a lottery ticket. Good luck :-)

Even if they ultimately don't succeed as a going concern, I have worked for two companies in the past that transformed their industries. Death and retirement of the founders in each case led to a loss of vision that prevented their continued innovation within the same firm. I say this because business failure does not have to mean death of the vision being realized. In fact, my hope is that Aptera's reason for being will end up being shared across the industry and that more companies will adopt efficient, human scale, focused and affordable designs. I don't see an exit from this mission by the driving personalities at Aptera any time soon. Rather they are attracting an entire community of focused talent.

IMHO

Its called a “Learning Curve“... Live and Learn. Put good people around you.

They have so much going for them!

May the Force Be With Them! As we follow and support their mission and make our dream come to reality.

My assessment:

Will say that statistically, the chance of Aptera failing is far greater than succeeding (Success defined as profitable ongoing operations) The fate of recent EV startups would validate this outcome. They are trying to break into a capital intensive business. They have exceptionally small reserves for any startup let alone one in the auto business where established companies with a lot of capital are having a difficult time. With a two seater, their market is limited, perhaps only a Niche.

HOWEVER

They have done some remarkable things with their small team and with little capital. I think it is amazing what they have accomplished. They are focused on efficiency, not only in the vehicle they are designing, but in there processes to design and produce the vehicle. Mr. Monroe is an expert at designing efficient production processes (Lean with Six Sigma) I think the result for them is an efficient low volume production line to start which has the capability to expand efficiently if demand grows. If they are successful enough with their two seater to the point they can get a mass market priced, four wheel, at least a four seater into the market place with their approach to efficiency, then they have the potential to become a Tesla type startup or going back farther a Ford Motor Company! I am sure if they passed away tomorrow they would roll over in their graves to hear that reference.

Aptera failed the first time (Not under this management team. This team left when Aptera 1 lost their vision and focus) so they know what not to do and what to do to succeed.

I am impressed with their openness in their webinars. Shows confidence in their product. They have two at this writing, actual prototypes that have been on the road and test track. None of their competitors have achieve that and have been working longer on their respective products.

I think they will succeed in getting into production and deliver vehicles. Then the market place will decide their fate. They need a little help with capital right now and I think it is worth a taking a chance to help them out

I think one of the main factors that will lead to their success is their relationship with Munro & Associates. I don’t know if Aptera developed this first or after consultation with Munro but the body breakup design of just 4 pieces that lock together for proper alignment and are human positionable is big deal. It meets the requirements of ”poka yoke” and “BOB” design (see link) which will lead to fewer manufacturing costs but also less disruption with assembly line problems. If they can get enough funding to make it to production they should succeed. The customer interest seems to be there.

https://www.leandesign.com/Newsletters/munroreport008.html

I have two different views when it comes to investing. Investing for profit, and investing for the idea.

1. Profit investments are long term, low risk, and stable payouts. It's how I make most of my money.

2. Investing in an idea is more along the kickstarter line of thought, where I see an interesting game, or product, and want to see it come to fruition. I tend to throw my spending money at these, without any thought of profit in return. Star Citizen is my biggest 'investment' so far on that front, even after my recent investment into Aptera.

3. Aptera itself is somewhat of a grey area, since investment in the idea both garners an amount off the vehicle, but also stock. So we'll see how it goes. :P

They list the risk factors in their prospectus. You have to know that pre-IPO investments are risky and that you could lose your investment. Every investment that we make makes failure less likely to happen, but I know of no way to put a number on it. My attitude at this stage is that apart from any prospect of return, I believe in what they are doing and am willing to make a donation to their success, if it should come to that.

Research. You will find the founders are honest, competent innovators. If it "goes under" it will be govt. sabotage. But since BEVs are a popular meme, that is unlikely.