I read somewhere online recently that with so many entities (both startups and OEMs) jumping on the EV bandwagon of late, there could be a severe strain on battery supplies. Based on their Battery Day presentation, Tesla seems to be preparing for just such an eventuality by securing their own battery design and production in house with their new bigger cells. Just wondering if Aptera has any concerns of running into any possible future battery bottlenecks with regards to their battery supplier(s)? Apparently, even if all the battery manufacturers can keep up with demand, there seems to be some worry in the industry that the supply of raw materials may not be able to keep up with demand within the next 10 years and this could actually cause the price of batteries to start increasing again. The main problem is that it takes time not only to ramp up production at existing mines but just getting approval from government for a new mine is an often long and painful process. Then there is the building of infrastructure, etc. and it can take a while before a mine starts producing. Hopefully, there are solutions in the works and the EV revolution won't be stopped before it's barely begun. That would indeed be a great tragedy.
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Like aluminum the major cost of lithium is in the refining.
I don't know if Aptera currently plans to use LiFePO4. I only mentioned it as an option to the Nickel issue mentioned above. One might be able to guestimate based on their PACK spec of 10Lb/kWh.
There's no nickel (or cobalt) in Lithium-iron-phosphate batteries. Some EVs use them now that they've figured out how to improve their energy density.
This guy seems to be more concerned about raw materials price fluctuations for other ev manufacturers besides Tesla:
Why EV Battery Costs Could Go...Up? - YouTube
This guy also give some good analysis of the battery supply challenges facing the ev industry:
Are we about to see an EV battery supply crisis? - YouTube
This video discusses future demand for nickel used in ev batteries and how this will compete with the steel industry which uses nickel in the manufacture of stainless steel products:
Battery Shock:The brewing battle for Nickel Supplies | Nickel Supply And Demand - YouTube
I agree that battery supply will probably be a limiting factor in the expansion of the market share of EVs. Tesla is doubling production every 18 months. 2020 saw them build roughly 500,000 cars. In 18 months they plan to double that annual rate. Aptera will be roughly 1% of that.
That doubling of EV marketshare will likely continue following a classic "S" curve until EVs are are majority of the vehicles sold each year, perhaps in 6 to 8 years. They are already a majority of the cars sold in Norway and have double digit market share in several other countries with good EV incentives.
However I have only seen predictions of battery costs continuing to decrease, and only some disagreement as to how fast that price drop will occur. I'm interested in seeing any links you have that say otherwise.
The big majority of battery cost is not in the raw materials, but in the manufacturing of them into batteries. So even if raw material prices doubled due to demand outracing supply, it would not likely offset the savings of ever more efficient manufacturing. Thus Tesla predicted battery costs to drop by over half in about 3 years.
Mining and refining for lithium and nickel as well as battery manufacturing plants are being built all over the world to keep up with demand.
Aptera has a huge advantage over others, since they only need HALF the battery of a Tesla 3:
- Aptera 12kWh goes 250 miles.
- Tesla 3 50kWh goes 263 miles.
& Aptera co-founder Chris Anthony seems to have his own battery company,
Flux Power.